What if chess was new??

Imagine that the game of chess did not exist. Not so easy, but required for this thought experiment. Next, imagine that everything else about the state of board games -- and abstract strategy games (ASG's), in particular -- was exactly the same. As chess is the most influential and popular ASG of all time, this is not easy to imagine, but necessary to pose the question that I wish to consider. ...

So, chess does not exist. There are other ASG's and they are played by the sorts of people who like them at the same rate as they are played now in reality.

Now, imagine someone invented chess today -- exactly as we now know it. But, it's brand new. No one has seen it or played it before. No openings have names. There was never a Fischer or a Kasparov. There are no books on strategy. There are no computer programs that can play it.

That's the set-up. Now here's the question: would this strange, new game called "chess" become popular? Or, would people just not like it? Or, is there a middle ground where it achieves popularity only after many years, even decades, of players slowly discovering its unique qualities?

This is the question that haunts me. The predominance of internet play in ASG's has been a great thing for chess, I believe. But, as I've discovered the wealth of other ASG's, many invented recently, I think I've discovered a negative dynamic where the best games get less interest and play! Ultimately, depressingly, I don't believe that chess could succeed in today's environment.

Chess has a "depth", let's call it, that means that an experienced player of average skill will nearly always beat a beginner -- even a very bright beginner. There are so many nuances to the tactics and strategy of chess that it requires a great deal of practice against good opponents -- and even study -- to achieve even modest success in the game. In my opinion, this depth is one of the great things about chess. One can always get better and learn more. Or, to take a page from video game jargon, you could say it has infinite replayability.

Chess, however, has a huge player base. It's easy to find opponents of your own skill level, even for a beginner. If you enjoy the game, there's always fair competition to be found.

So, let us return to our thought experiment. Here, the player base of chess is nearly zero. Only the inventor and some of his friends even know the rules. Would a game player who found chess like it? I propose that the newly invented chess would have a very difficult time in breaking out as a popular game. There are two reasons for this. The first is that the rules are relatively complex. Compared to other classic ASG's, say Go or Reversi, the rules make an extra barrier to entry for new players. (I feel like this is the only small flaw in chess, an otherwise perfect game. *) But, that is a small matter besides the bigger problem of its great depth. ...

As I said, I feel depth is a huge positive for a game. However, for a new game, it has a big drawback. A few players will like the game, play it a lot, become good, and then easily crush other, newer players who are just trying to learn. In a game with such a steep learning curve -- both in the rules and in the strategic depth -- new players would tend to become discouraged and give up the game. Furthermore, I think I see this dynamic playing out in real life on Board Game Arena (BGA). There are some really fascinating new games available on the site that I think are great that just can't get much traction (where "new" means the last decade or two). They seem to support the theory: a small number of experienced players tend to dominate new players who are seeking to learn.

So, there's the question and my own depressing answer. I believe that if chess was released as a brand new game today, it would fail and fade into obscurity. My only laboratory to test the theory against is BGA. I propose as my examples of this phenomenon 2 games that I believe are truly great games and display a chess-like depth: Circle of Life and Ponte del Diavolo. Both have been available there for around 5 years. You can easily calculate their average daily games played from the game info pages on BGA, where you can find the release date and the total number of games played. As of this writing, those numbers stand at 11.5 games per day for Ponte del Diavolo and 13.1 for Circle of Life, which is well below average.

In all fairness, I must also present a couple of counter-examples that can be found on BGA: Quoridor and Hive. Both of these games have been available on BGA for about twice as long as as those previously mentioned (around 11 years). Their game per day statistics are an order of magnitude higher than the first examples: Quoridor averages 291.5 games/day and Hive 234.8! Although, I do feel these two counter-examples have an extra advantage that is difficult to account for. They were both invented quite a few years before BGA started (2010). Quoridor was released in 1997 and Hive in 2001. They both had some success in sales of physical game sets. So, I believe they both were bringing an established player base from real life play into the internet release of the games. Whereas, Ponte del Diavolo was released in 2008 and Circle of Life in only 2015.

These counter-examples could support either of the alternate theories: 1) chess would become quickly popular, or 2) chess would become popular only slowly after decades of players discovering its richness. However, the thought exercise is not about these example games. These games really are new and will have one of the three outcomes at some point. The question is firstly about the brand new game of chess. Chess has stood the test of time and fascinated players for hundreds of years. With such a variety of good ASG's available to players instantly on the internet today, could the newly invented game chess be successful in this world? ... We'll never know, of course. But, one must wonder.

Finally, I have to mention the point of the entire exercise. If we doubt that chess would succeed in this present environment, then what other equally fabulous games may be getting overlooked and forgotten right now?? Is the next great ASG being slowly lost to us? ... I pray not. But, don't take a chance. Head over to BGA and play a game of Ponte del Diavolo right now!